−6 YRS
0.91
Producer outage · unplanned
Brent +14.6% at the open — 62% retraced within 6 sessions
Phase D · The flagship instruments
The Personal Economist
Terminal / Economist
6 instruments · 3 pro-tier · 0 live feeds
Sample
What was today's move, what does this news historically lead to, and how far does a shock travel? The instruments are in build — each panel below shows a worked example with invented numbers, so the surface is real before the data is.
Instrument 01
Sample
In build · D1
The Daily Decomposition
What moved the price today — split into what was anticipated, what was shock, and what is drift. In plain language.
WTI · last session
+2.4%
ComponentShare of moveContribution
Anticipated
25% of move
Shock
58% of move
Drift
13% of move
Unattributed
4% of move
Reads
“+1.4% arrived in the 40 minutes after the OPEC+ headline; +0.6% was already priced from Wednesday's draw; +0.1% we can't attribute — so we say so.”
Bar width is the share of the session move; the figure on the right is the percentage-point contribution. The four components sum to the printed +2.4%.
Instrument 02
Sample
In build · B2
Magnitude
A severity score for market news — the Richter scale for markets. Epicenter, aftershocks, decay.
M 6.3
OPEC+ surprise cut
0quake scale9
Larger than 89% of the 112 supply-shock events measured since 1988.
Aftershock
Reading
Epicenter · +40 min
M 6.3
+1 session
M 3.1
+3 sessions
M 1.4
Scale runs 0–9 on measured abnormal move against a trailing-volatility baseline. n = 112 supply-shock events.
Instrument 03
Pro
Sample
In build · D2
Risk Bands
Honest uncertainty: conformal intervals and measured tails, never point predictions.
At +5 sessions: 68% within ±2.1% · 95% within ±4.8% · n=1,204
Horizon68%95%
+1 session±0.9%±2.1%
+3 sessions±1.6%±3.6%
+5 sessions±2.1%±4.8%
Bands are conformal intervals on % return, horizon in trading sessions (0 → +5). The drawn cone is plotted from the table above — same figures, same √time widening. The dashed line is the median path, not a forecast.
Instrument 04
Pro
Sample
In build · D6
The Analog Engine
Finds the closest historical episodes to today — and shows what actually happened next.
Illustrative priors · event classes,
not archive records
−4 YRS
0.87
Cartel cut · above consensus
Sold the news: −8.3% over the following week
−2 YRS
0.84
Strategic reserve release
−7.0% on the day, then −1.2% drift over 3 sessions
Similarity is 0–1 across the ranked set; n = 3 of 268 ranked priors shown. Every row here is a worked example — an event class and an invented magnitude, not a record from the archive. The shipped instrument names the episode and takes its figures from the measured file.
Instrument 05
Pro
Sample
In build · D7
Cascade
The measured event graph: how a shock travels from headline through markets, animated.
n = 112 traced cascades
Measured reachMedian latency
Energy equities · XLE
~25 min
n = 96 cascades
Refining margin · CRACK
~25 min
n = 74 cascades
Petro-FX · CADJPY, USDNOK
~2 h
n = 88 cascades
HY energy credit · HY EN
~1 session
n = 41 cascades
Headline → epicenter → aftershocks. Latencies are medians over n = 112 traced cascades; each leg prints its own n, because not every cascade reaches every node. A node's column on the graph is its latency in the table.
Instrument 06
Sample
In build · D8
Psychology Exhibits
Habituation, overreaction, fear-premium decay — the measurable psychology of markets, measured.
Habituation
+4.1% → +0.9%
Overreaction
day +3.2 · kept +1.1
Fear premium
+38 bp at peak
The 5th tanker attack moves less than the 1st. Measured, exhibited. Each exhibit is drawn from its own event set — n = 34, n = 61 and n = 47 respectively.